least in the EU. In addition to degradation of the intrinsic value of This includes responses of biodiversity. One effect of globalisation is these ecosystems, the environmental impact on these areas has the drastically improved dispersal possibilities for species, which will important consequences for e.g. the supply of natural resources to affect the response of biodiversity in diverse, non-uniform ways. Europe. Research into the dynamics and climate change impacts of these regions should be a primary focus. ESTABLISHMENT OF BASELINE INFORMATION AND MONITORING OF IMPACTS TECHNOLOGIES AND PRIORITIES There is an urgent need for long-term observations to provide There is general agreement among the responses from the scientists baseline information on the current status of the functioning of our canvassed here that priority number one in climate-related research planet and its ecosystems, especially those ecosystems still deemed is the integration of climate change and other resource limitations in “pristine.” A natural system is forever changing, and the main ques- all aspects of societal decision making. tion is how much change an ecosystem can take before it becomes unbalanced. Knowledge on baseline and natural variability is a The scientifi c understanding of human impacts on the climate prerequisite for the following research areas: system is already more than suffi cient to initiate political action designed to equitably share all climate-related resources, thus •Improvement of our understanding of the functioning and interac- leading to a general adaptation of our individual and collective tions of different ecosystems (including components, processes, behav-iour where necessary. This needs to be supported by a bet- biodiversity and services) and their interactions with human society; ter understanding of societal values and their roles in enhancing or preventing societal transformation. •Improving the predictive capability of climate models, ecosystem models, and resourceuse models by systematically combining mod- In addition, a number of other critical research issues associated els with observations through advanced data assimilation methods. with different levels of the knowledge tower presented in the Baseline information is a necessity for making informed models previous section were also identifi ed. These follow (no priority in and predictions concerning the human impacts on the global importance is implied by the order of presentation): climate system, our society, and consequently also the European community and economy; BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF MECHANISMS AND INTERACTIONS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM, INCLUDING •Assessment of the severity of impacts on ecosystems caused THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. by current climate change. Special attention should be made to The main focus of the suggested research areas in the draft the impact on biodiversity. Contrary to most other resources, this Horizon 2020 is on the development of future climate predictions, important resource is not recyclable. When a species has gone adequate for regional applications. However, the improvement of extinct, it is lost forever. Yet, not only do we depend on biodiver- such predictions requires continued research aimed at furthering sity, it may also hold important answers on how to minimise future our understanding of the complexities in the underlying Earth and impacts of climate change, how to treat diseases and how to create climate systems at many different temporal and spatial scales. This new resource opportunities. Extra care must therefore be taken to important research should, of course, be continued as long as new preserve this resource; knowledge is to be gained. Main research areas include: •Monitoring of impacts to identify trends that need to be considered •Research into mechanisms behind climate change and their inter- by policy-makers, thereby providing early warning indicators for actions on spatial and temporal scales, in particular using the past; anticipated feedback processes and impacts that are expected to develop in the future (ocean acidifi cation etc.); •Research into the hydrological cycle and its interaction with the Earth system; •Assessment of vulnerability to climate change of specifi c ecosys- tems and societies; and •Better understanding of the interactive role of bio- logical processes of the climate system and their responses to climate change. CLIMATE 67
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