6 Introduction
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18501900195020002050
Year
Population/Inbillions
2,4
2,1
1,8
1,5
1,2
0,9
0,6
0,3
0,0
Data
Annualgrowthrate/%
Forecast
Figure 1.6: A plot of the world population (in black) and annual growth rates (in
blue) from 1850 to 2062. The numbers from 2015 and 2062 are forecasts. Data taken
from 4.
2040, which corresponds to an increase of 37 % from 2014 5. Although the
exact numbers from such forecasts can vary dramatically, it is certain that we
will need to produce signicantly more energy in the coming decades.
The question is how this vast amount of energy will be provided. The numbers
presented here has so far been in Mtoe, which can seem somewhat arbitrary. As
an example of the magnitudes, one of the largest wind turbines ever built is the
Vestas V-164 which can deliver 8 MW. If this turbine was to run with 8 MW as
power output non-stop for a year it would produce 0.006 Mtoe. The windmills
in Denmark deliver between 25 and 30 % of the nominal power as electricity
averaged over a year 6. In other words, 13000 Mtoe/year consumption could be
covered with approximately 7.3 mio. 8 MW wind turbines, assuming the deliver
30 % of the nominal power. Note that the world currently has an installed wind
power capacity of around 370 GW 7, or what corresponds to about 46000 8
MW turbines.
In 2014 oil, natural gas and coal resources provided 86 % of the worlds primary
energy consumption. Is it possible for these traditional resources to ll the gap?
In the energy sector there is still optimism regarding this prospect, however, it
should be noted that forecasting the production and predicting the fossil fuel
reserves are not straightforward tasks. This is illustrated in 1.7a and b.
In gure 1.7a oil production forecasts from three annual reports of the US Energy
Information Administration, EIA, are plotted. It is evident that the actual
production in 2010 was lower than predicted and in the latest report the expectations
for 2020 and 2025 have decreased signicantly since 2004. In gure 1.7b
the so called proven reserves are taken from BP Statistical Review of World