1.1 A world divided in energy 7
20052010201520202025203020352040
120
110
100
90
80
Reserves/Productionratio
2002200420062008201020122014
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
a)
2014
2004
Millionbarrelsperday
Year
2001
EIAreferencecases:
ActualWorldoilproduction
b)
R/Pratio
Oil
NaturalGas
Year
Coal
Figure 1.7: a) Forecasts of the worlds oil production from the US Energy Information
Administration, EIA. In blue is their forecast from 2001, in black from 2004 and
in red from 2014. Based on 5, 8, 9 b) Reserves/production ratios for the three major
fuels in the period 2002 to 2014. Based on statistics from 3, 1016.
Energy annual reports. Especially for the coal reserves there is a drastic change
in the evaluation from 2002 to 2014. The predictions also vary signicantly
dependent on the source, exemplied in gure 1.8 showing the forecast from
Energy Watch Group, EWG, a non-prot organization of scientists.
Figure 1.8: World oil production from 1940 to 2030, divided into regions. The
number from 2012 are predictions. The dashed black line represents the scenario
predicted by the Energy Watch Group in 2008. The red dotted line represents the
International Energy Agency's outlook from 2006 and the blue dotted line their outlook
from 2012. Figure taken from 17.
The forecast from EWG in 2013 clearly shows a dierent picture than the one
from EIA and in their view the global oil production should decrease already