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215 72 Modelling future climate change based on the Paris Agreement at COP21 Selina Howalt Owe DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark INTRODUCTION During COP21 the Paris Agreement was developed. This agreement was made to prevent the change in Earth’s global temperature to exceed 2°C. On the 22nd of April 2016 the agreement was signed by enough parties to take effect. Using model technology to model and predict future climate change, makes it possible to test and evaluate the goals set by politicians to prevent global warming. This project uses the DCESS (Danish Center for Earth System Science) Earth system model to scrutinize the COP21 agreement. THEORY Earth system models are used to investigate the future global changes. As these models improve and become more precise, it's possible to inspect the goals set by politicians to review if they are ambitious enough to prevent global warming. And as our knowledge of computer models and Earth climate science becomes increasingly more advanced it becomes possible to create simple models able to depict the climate more precise. Using the DCESS model, a simple box model, the goals set by the world leaders at COP21 is scrutinized. METHODS A study of different climate forcings and scenarios has been made to alter the DCESS model such that it corresponds to the most possible future. A literature study of the Paris Agreement has also been made to extract the most important model inputs so that the model predictions fit the agreement. Since the Paris agreement itself only has a CO2 emission goal for year 2030, the near future emissions (until year 2100) has been modelled by imagining different scenarios of decrease in CO2 emission. RESULTS The results of the project are the model outputs. The model shows, that the current Paris Agreement goal of 40 Gt CO2 emission in 2030 results in a global temperature change of 1.5C in 2030 since the pre-industrial age. The model shows that a 5% decrease in global emission from each year after 2030 is needed to stay just at 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. This illustrates the need for immediate action and faster conversion to greener energy and immediate reduction in the global CO2 emission. ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS & SOLUTIONS POSTER IDEA BACHELOR LEVEL COURSE / PROJECT


Grøn Dyst 2016
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